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As the battle to succeed BUHARI begins, the odds favour Peter OBI

As the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, will be flying the flag of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in next year’s general elections after today’s Apc presidential primaries the battle line has been drawn.

Tinubu will be challenged next February by Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Labour Party’s Peter Obi, KWANKWASO, among others.

President Muhammadu Buhari will leave office in May 2023 after two four-year terms in office.

Here is the analysis for the 2023 presidential election.

Atiku & Kwankwaso are northerners, so northern votes will be split between Atiku and Kwankwaso, no block votes would go to either of them.

Tinubu and Obi are southerners, though Asiwaju has money to throw around, that doesn’t negate the fact that he is an old, sick man who is not marketable by any indices, so he’s a bad market for the party and region (for those who still want to vote along regional lines).

Note that the three aforementioned candidates are Muslims, so those that want to vote along religious line, Muslim votes will be divided among the three of them.

Peter Obi on the other hand is obviously the most competent and qualified candidate, ethnicity aside. No sane Southerner will leave a healthy, educated, prudent, well-tested, well-exposed Peter Obi to vote for Asiwaju. Though Tinubu’s ill-gotten wealth can buy him some votes but a vast majority of Nigerians are wiser now. If you play religious card, Obi is the only Christian candidate among the 4 top contenders, so fellow Christians will vote for him.

Let’s analyze the Southern region further.
South-East is 97% to 100% for Peter Obi.
South-South is 60% to 80% for Peter Obi.
South-West, the Yorubas are learned and exposed, so they will not all blindly vote for Asiwaju because of money and tribal sentiments. Also remember that Igbos rank second in Southwest aside from Yorubas in terms of population, so Peter Obi can get 50% to 55% from there, if not more.

When it comes to campaigns, presentation of manifestos, Peter Obi will shine brighter than all the other aspirants.

What about the Middle Belt? They have suffered enough casualties in the hands of the Fulani-led government and therefore will likely vote for Obi who is neither from the north or from the party that has brought them so much misery.

So when the ethnic and religious votes are counted out, the remaining votes will go to Peter Obi, and that will give him the edge to win the 2023 election.

So based on this analysis, His Excellency, Mr. Peter Obi should start writing his inauguration speech.

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